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On-Chain

>Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) 7-day SMA: 7.75

SSR measures the supply of BTC relative to the supply of all stablecoins, denominated in BTC. Assessing the relationship between the size of the stablecoin market and BTC allows the investor to determine whether buying power remains ample, or conversely, has been exhausted.

Bullish rating remains, considering that the SSR hovers well below yearly highs seen back in January. Also reflects the secular growth of stablecoin positions among retail and institutional investors.

SMA: Simple Moving Average. Time frames involving this metric vary (e.g. the 200-day SMA is widely tracked); seven-day SMA, naturally, used for week to week check-ins.

>> Adjusted Spent Output Price Ratio (aSOPR) 7-day SMA: 1.04

The aSOPR metric examines levels of profitability/loss experienced by coins moved on-chain over a 24-hour interval. aSOPR calculates an aggregate level of daily spent outputs, or the price at which a coin is sold divided by its respective cost basis.

Ratio above 1 indicates that coins–in the aggregate–are being sold for profit, vice versa for ratios below 1; aSOPR continues to flash bullish sentiment as traders were able to realize profits on a consistent basis over the past few weeks

>>>Number of Transactions, 7-day SMA: 240,266

Weekly moving average for the daily number of transactions on the Bitcoin ledger. On-chain transaction volume is a helpful proxy for gauging underlying network effects associated with BTC’s value as a medium of exchange.

A disconnect, between BTC’s price and a lack of on-chain transaction quantity, continues to befuddle investors, hence a bearish signal.

>>>>Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), 7-day SMA: 5.47 million

CDD is used to gauge the dynamics and length of market cycles by placing heavy attention on the trading actions of investors that hold BTC for the long term.

Spending behavior of long-term holders is reflected in the size of CDD; consequently, traders can use this metric to track potential inflection points in market cycles

CDD’s recent movement suggests that the market sufficiently absorbed an uptick in profit-taking, taken as bullish.

Technical 

>200-Day Simple Moving Average

Price: $45,358 (slightly bearish);

Equally weighted average tracking daily pricing data from the last 200 trading days. Often represents a key area of support/resistance and provides a solid assessment of the underlying price trend by largely ignoring volatile day to day price swings;

BTC’s price traded above the 200-day towards the end of the week.

>>RSI: 60.15

Momentum indicator measuring both the speed and rate of change of recent price movements. Helpful in determining overbought/oversold market conditions

The fact that BTC’s RSI came in below 70 (in a neutral zone) generally suggests that the asset has not been overbought despite its recent rally. 

Fundamental

>Open Futures Interest, 7-day SMA (All Exchanges): Futures open interest (7-day SMA): $15.57 billion (looking increasingly bullish).

Calculates the total amount of funds ($USD) currently locked in BTC futures contracts (across all major exchanges) that have neither been exercised nor expired. Provides insight into the actions of institutional traders, while also evaluating the general level of strength/weakness that underlies price fluctuations of BTC. Relatively heightened futures inflows (compared to the past month and a half) continue to suggest that momentum remains firmly positioned behind the recent rally. 

>>Exchange Net Flows, 7-day SMA: -1,547 BTC 

Weekly moving average tracking the difference between # of BTC flowing into and out of exchanges. The numbers projected by the metric are counterintuitive; positive net inflows are normally taken as bearish signatures, and vice versa for outflows.

Continued net outflows from exchanges is bullish as it reflects the strong conviction of traders that BTC’s upswing might offer more runway than previously expected.

>>>Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Ratio, 7-day SMA

 NVTS: 38.23;

NVT measures BTC’s market cap relative to the 90-day SMA of daily transaction volume on the Bitcoin network. It provides insight on overbought/oversold market conditions, serving as a leading indicator of market peaks/troughs. The signal’s months-long consolidation looks to be in the rearview mirror, thus arguing that the bottom of this current market cycle has passed.

The metric is beginning to hit levels not seen since the May selloff (bullish). Considering that NVTS still hovers well below its yearly highs, it is fair to say that the current upward price trajectory has not yet out-stripped the value being generated on the network.

>>>>Market Value/Realized Value (MVRV)

MVRV ratio: 2.3;

Takes the current market cap of BTC and divides it by the realized capitalization.

Since realized cap presents a cumulative cost basis for the market and removes the influence of dormant coins, it provides a noteworthy assessment of Bitcoin’s long-term fair valuation.

What this ratio is saying is that, hypothetically, if all holders were to sell their BTC positions right now, they would receive–on average–2.3x their initial investment. Ultimately, MVRV still suggests that BTC’s current price sits fairly above the level at which many long-term holders entered into their positions.

Although it’s still far below levels seen earlier this year, a bullish outlook can be extracted from this metric considering that it has rebounded noticeably from early July’s YTD lows.

>>>>>Mean Hash Rate

Mean Hash rate: 116.96 EH/sec

Hash rate: an estimation of the total numbers of hashes produced each second by miners on the Bitcoin network, serving as a key proxy of the total computational resources underpinning the world’s largest crypto.

Although it’s still far below levels seen in earlier this year, a positive outlook can be extracted from this metric considering that it has rebounded noticeably from early July’s YTD lows.

>>>>>>Futures Perpetual Funding Rate, 7-day SMA: 0.008%

This metric is designed to track the average funding rate–weighted by the size of open interest on each tracked exchange–required to hold a perpetual futures contract tied to BTC.

The prevailing rate–whether positive or negative–incentivizes traders to buy/sell perpetual contracts to converge the perpetual futures price with the spot price.

To maintain a hypothetical $1,000 perpetual BTC futures position, longs were paying shorts about $8.00 every few hours over the past week, on average.

Since this positive number indicates people are willing to pay to be long, it can ultimately be read as a bullish signature. 

The Good 

Our full complement of six fundamental indicators all as of Sunday night were flashing bullishly (as BTC flirted with $48,000). Note too that the on-chain bearish signal, regarding Number of Transactions, carried something of a silver lining in that the months-long decline in transaction volume possibly can be pinned on “minnows,” or those entities with smaller holdings of BTC (relative to whales, or those with larger holdings).

The Bad 

It was on Aug. 8 that BTC tested its 200-day SMA at 44,845. Some eleven days later, BTC was only slightly higher than that. But holding support at $44,000 was a source of comfort as bulls and bears struggle against one another.

The Ugly

BTC holding support at $44K sure was a great sign, analysts told Cointelegraph, although as of Aug. 19, the $47K level and upwards played host to a thus-far impenetrable sell wall.