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The Good

At its current level of 139.4 EH/sec hash rate has recovered nearly 65% from July’s YTD lows, signaling that computing power continues to come back online following the “great migration” that followed China’s mining clampdown.   

And in what can be seen as an extremely bullish development, that massive liquidation cascade we saw two weeks back seems to have had a negligible impact on supply-side dynamics.

The Bad

Lackluster activity on the Bitcoin network is bewildering and a subject of debate with some viewing the decline in transaction count owing (in part) to the emergence of layer-2 scaling solutions such as the Lighting Network. Other pundits seem to entirely discard the metric, insisting “hodling” activity is a stronger indicator of on-chain health. 

The Ugly

Despite a sustained breakthrough above the 200-day just a little more than one week ago, a still-unfolding Chinese real estate debt crisis has rocked the world’s largest crypto, testing $40,000 at a time when many analysts are eying a weekly close of at least $43K. As of 9/21, BTC, struggling to stay at $42,000, was well below the widely tracked 200-day average and falling, signaling that, in the short-term, momentum is going in the wrong direction.

On-Chain:

>Adjusted Spent Output Ratio (aSOPR), 7-day SMA:1.013

The aSOPR metric examines levels of profitability/loss experienced by coins moved on-chain over a 24-hour interval. It calculates an aggregate level of daily spent outputs or the price at which a coin is sold divided by its respective cost basis. A ratio above 1 indicates that coins–in the aggregate–are being sold for profit, vice versa for ratios below 1. 

Bullish: Another week, another bullish print on the weekly aSOPR charts (1.013). The well-tracked profit-taking metric continues to reflect kindly on the world’s largest crypto, with a near 2-month consolidation above 1 indicating that the market is both willing and able to absorb supply-side pressure.

Additionally, aSOPR’s intraday movements are also exhibiting a bullish bias. Repeated resets off of that key 1.0 threshold (as we saw on 9/13) would seem to indicate that on-chain entities are actively buying the dip. 

>>Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), 7-day SMA:5.9 million CDD

CDD is used to gauge the dynamics and length of market cycles by placing heavy attention on the trading actions of investors that hold BTC for the long term.

The spending behavior of long-term holders is reflected in the size of CDD; consequently, traders can use this metric to track potential inflection points in market cycles.

Bullish: CDD has recovered nicely following a fairly significant increase seen throughout the month of August, averaging 5.9 million for the week ending 9/19, a 50% decrease from those levels seen late last month. The fact that CDD has not yet experienced a serious uptick following BTC’s price dip, amidst sudden global securities markets convulsions on Sept. 20, would seem to bode well, illustrating that long-term holders (LTHs) are willing to wait out short-term turbulence. 

>>>Number of Transactions, 7-day SMA:251,755

Weekly moving average tracking the daily number of transactions successfully processed by the Bitcoin ledger, serving as a proxy for block-space demand and the underlying strength of the network.

Bearish: Despite a number of accumulation-themed metrics signaling an impending supply shock, Bitcoin’s on-chain activity remains distinctly muted. 

Although it has recovered nicely from July’s YTD lows, BTC’s transaction count is still hovering nearly 31% from levels seen in January of 2021. As of 9/19 the metric was standing roughly 0.02% higher from this time 7 days ago. 

Technical:

>200-day SMA:$45,751 *as of 9/21

Equally weighted average tracking daily pricing data from the last 200 trading days. Often represents a key area of support/resistance and provides a solid assessment of the underlying price trend by largely ignoring volatile day-to-day price swings.

Bearish

The current divergence between the spot price and the 200-day (nearly $4,000) is the largest we have experienced since early August.

Fundamental:

>Open Interest, Futures, 7-day SMA: $15.05 billion 

Calculates the total amount of funds ($USD) currently locked in BTC futures contracts (across all major exchanges) that have neither been exercised nor expired. Provides insight into the actions of institutional traders, while also evaluating the general level of strength/weakness that underlies price fluctuations of BTC.

Neutral: Open futures interest has started to tick up slightly following that massive leverage blowout we experienced on Sept. 7th when BTC dropped nearly 20% in mere hours. Although this metric is currently hovering nearly $2.5 billion below its early September highs, a continued run-up in open interest could spell trouble for BTC (in the short-term) given the sheer amount of leverage that often accompanies these positions. On-chain wizard Will Clemente pegs futures markets as leaning slightly bullish, albeit hedged with a distinct note of caution, hence this week’s neutral rating.

>>Net Exchange Flows, 7-day SMA:-3255 BTC

Weekly moving average tracking the difference between # of BTC flowing into and out of exchanges. The numbers projected by the metric are counterintuitive; positive net inflows are normally taken as bearish signatures, and vice versa for outflows.

Bullish: Coin accumulation seems to be the name of the game for LTHs and STHs alike as evidenced by yet another week of heavy exchange outflows. 

Exchanges parted ways with an average of 3255 BTC for the week ending 9/19, down slightly from this time 7 days ago. Per Glassnode, there are roughly 82K less BTC present on exchange wallets than this time 30 days ago. 

>>>Mean Hash Rate, 7-day SMA:133.5 EH/sec 139.4 EH/sec

Hash rate: an estimation of the total numbers of hashes produced each second by miners on the Bitcoin network, serving as a key proxy of the total computational resources underpinning the world’s largest crypto.

Bullish: The hash rate has once again printed a fairly significant increase on the weekly charts in what can be seen as a continuation of the structural uptrend unfolding over the past three months.